Dashain 2026 begins with Ghatasthapana on 11 October and reaches Vijaya Dashami on 21 October; Tihar follows from 8 to 11 November, with Bhai Tika on the 11th. Those four weeks are the single busiest stretch of the year on every route into Kathmandu, and the fare pattern around them is predictable enough to plan for.
Why festival fares behave differently
Ordinary peak seasons are driven by tourists, who are flexible about dates. Dashain is driven by people going home, who are not. When demand is concentrated on a fixed set of dates and barely responds to price, airlines have little reason to discount — which is why the usual advice about waiting for a fare drop fails badly in October.
The effect is strongest on the labour corridors — the Gulf, Malaysia, Korea — where a large share of passengers are travelling for exactly the same reason on exactly the same dates. Routes from the UK, US and Australia rise too, but the rise is spread over a longer window because those travellers take longer trips.
If you have not booked yet
Book now rather than after another week of watching. In a demand spike the realistic choice is not between today's price and a cheaper one later — it is between today's price and a higher one later. Any saving at this point comes from flexibility, not from patience.
Three levers still work. Fly a few days off the peak — arriving a week before Ghatasthapana or after Vijaya Dashami is materially cheaper than landing in the days right before Tika. Accept a connection instead of the non-stop, which on Gulf routes often costs noticeably less. And check nearby departure airports: from the UAE, comparing Dubai, Sharjah and Abu Dhabi can move the price more than changing dates does.
The return leg is the expensive half
Most people focus on getting home and treat the return as an afterthought. On festival travel that is backwards: the outbound fills up first, but the return flights in the week after Tika are what sell out hardest, because everyone's leave ends at once. Book both legs together.
If your leave dates are not confirmed, price a flexible or changeable fare rather than buying two one-ways and hoping. Compare the cost of the flexibility against what a last-minute return in mid-November would actually cost you — on the Gulf and Malaysia routes that gap is usually wide enough to justify it.
Practical things that go wrong in festival season
Kathmandu airport is at its most congested during these weeks. Allow more time than you normally would, both for departure and for the arrival queues at immigration and baggage. Domestic onward flights to Pokhara, Bhadrapur or Nepalgunj also fill early, so book them at the same time as the international leg rather than after you land.
Baggage is the other festival-season trap. People travel home with more than usual, and excess baggage bought at the airport counter is far more expensive than adding an allowance online beforehand. If you are carrying gifts in volume, compare the airline's excess rate against sending a box as cargo — cheaper for weight, slower to arrive, and worth deciding on before you are standing at check-in.